Summaries
rcair1 (thread #16, reply 144) There have been reports from Rolls Royce that the accident a/c sent 2 engine status messages - at take off and 20 minutes later. They were unremarkable. So ACARS was operating before the LOS event. I believe that means that what is being said is the ACARS did not transmit anything remarkable. ---- Sanity check. I'm going to try to list what we know, not what we think - we being the public. And sadly it is very short. - The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing - The last comms were a normal handoff from Malaysia to Vietnam control. - It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted. - The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit. - There is some reports of a descent and turn - based on primary radar. - But there is confusion about the veracity of that. - There is some confusion (in the press) about if the descent was 3000ft or to 3000ft - There was a primary radar return tracked west over the Malacca straits. - Since it is primarily - a reflection - we do not know that it is the accident a/c. - We do not know if it was a track (multiple returns) or a few points returns. - We have no ELT signal detected. Based on this information - authorities are searching 2 areas - near the planned route and in the Malacca straight. - Frankly - this is quite reasonable. You search where you have evidence the a/c may be. There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever. - We have no data to support any of them. - The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the 'government is hiding it' aspects - It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves. We have lots of complaints about incompetence. - I've been in and in command of large emergencies and been the one responsible to communicate to large groups. - Even in the best situations, with cooperating agencies - it is easy to portray incompetence when what is really going on is hard work that is not providing the desired result. There are lots of people talking about "mobile phones". - We know that if any mobile phones were connected to the tower - we would have a location and would search there. - We don't have any reports or evidence of that - so I conclude that it is not viable to consider. We have had a lot of "false" sightings - This is common and we need to investigate the credible ones. Most will be false. In summary We KNOW 3 things. - The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it. - There is some evidence that it traveled west. But that evidence is not conclusive or sure. - We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard. That is all. "New Sanity Check" by rcair1 (thread #21, reply #31) New Sanity Check. A slight update to the sanity check I did in thread 16. Been trying to do this for 12 hrs - I can't keep up with the rumors, The facts have not changed much. Stuff that has changed is marked with * and '' italic '' I'm going to try to list what we know, not what we think - we being the public. And sadly it is very short. - The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing - The last comms were a normal handoff from Malaysia to Vietnam control. - It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted. - The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit. - There are some reports of a descent and turn - based on primary radar. - But there is confusion about the veracity of that. - There is some confusion (in the press) about if the descent was 3000ft or to 3000ft * Update: I think we have concluded it was descent by 3000ft, the a/c remained at or near 29,500 feet. - There was a primary radar return tracked west over the Malacca straits. - Since it is primarily - a reflection - we do not know that it is the accident a/c. - We do not know if it was a track (multiple returns) or a few points returns. - We have no ELT signal detected. * Update: * ACARS: 2 ACARS messages were sent to Rolls Royce - both before the LOS (loss of signal) event. None after that. * SATCOM Pings: There are (unconfirmed?) reports that the a/c SATCOM continued to send network interrogations (pings) for some hours after the LOS. * These pings are simply short signals from the a/c to the satellites that are a sort of "I'm here" signal. No data was sent. '* This IS Significant, ' if it is true because that means the a/c was in flight and that comms were NOT disable. * However, these pings provide no location, direction or any other kind of info - simply a 'ping' sent to the satellite. * There is confusion about these pings being primary radar returns - that is not correct - they are communication signals. Airworthiness Directive * The airworthiness directive about the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship. * The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna Based on this information - authorities are searching 2 areas - near the planned route and in the Malacca straight. * In addition - there may be some extension to the Indian Ocean. * This makes sense if the primary radar returns in the Malacca Straight were MH370 and it was heading west at altitude. * The fact that we have found nothing in the most likely areas drives expansion based on either new data or less reliable data. - Frankly - this is quite reasonable. You search where you have evidence the a/c may be. There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever. - We have no data to support any of them. - The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the 'government is hiding it' aspects - It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves. We have lots of complaints about incompetence. ' - I've been in and in command of large emergencies and been the one responsible to communicate to large groups. - Even in the best situations, with cooperating agencies - it is easy to portray incompetence when what is really going on is hard work that is not providing the desired result. ''* Complaints continue and will despite what any authority does till something happens. '''Mobile phones - We know that if any mobile phones were connected to the tower - we would have a location and would search there. - We don't have any reports or evidence of that - so I conclude that it is not viable to consider. We have had a lot of "false" sightings - This is common and we need to investigate the credible ones. Most will be false. - The Chinese Satellite data has not resulted in any findings. ---------------------- In summary We KNOW 4 things. - The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it. - There is some evidence that it traveled west. But that evidence is not conclusive or sure. - We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard. * We have a better idea were it is NOT That is all. (Perhaps somebody can do an Insanity Check - all the wild theories have been discussed, proven or not).